Timberwolves vs Spurs Prediction and Best NBA Bets for May 11, 2026
The Timberwolves vs Spurs matchup enters Game 4 with major playoff pressure on Minnesota. San Antonio leads the Western Conference semifinal series 2-1 after winning two straight games. The Spurs grabbed momentum with a dominant 133-95 victory in Game 2, then secured a 115-108 road win on May 8 behind Victor Wembanyama’s elite performance.
Game 4 tips off on Sunday, May 10, at 7:30 p.m. ET at Target Center in Minneapolis. NBC will broadcast the game nationally.
Minnesota now faces a must-win situation after opening the series with a narrow 104-102 victory on May 4. Anthony Edwards returned early from a knee injury in that opener and scored 18 points in 25 minutes. Since then, San Antonio’s defense has controlled the tempo.
Predictive models currently give the Spurs a 65% to 68% chance of winning Game 4. The betting line favors San Antonio by 4.5 points, while the total sits at 218.5 points.
Spurs Continue Dominating Through Defense and Pace
The Spurs finished the regular season with a 62-20 record and continue showing balance on both ends. Their road form has become a major playoff story. San Antonio is now 9-1 across its last 10 away games while averaging 124.6 points per game during that stretch.
Wembanyama Leading Every Category
Victor Wembanyama completely controlled Game 3. He posted 39 points, 15 rebounds, and 5 blocks on 13-of-18 shooting. He also scored 16 fourth-quarter points and converted 10 of 12 free throws. His efficiency changed the entire game late.
De’Aaron Fox added 17 points, while Stephon Castle produced 13 points and 12 assists with a +17 rating. San Antonio’s ball movement created consistent open looks. The Spurs also forced Minnesota into missing its first 12 shots in Game 3. That early defensive pressure shifted momentum immediately.
Timberwolves Need Faster Starts in Game 4
The Timberwolves vs Spurs series now depends heavily on Minnesota’s offensive rhythm. Anthony Edwards delivered 32 points, 14 rebounds, and 6 assists in Game 3, but San Antonio limited him to just 5 fourth-quarter points.
Injury Report and Betting Outlook
Minnesota remains without Donte DiVincenzo due to a right Achilles tendon repair. San Antonio only lists David Jones Garcia as out with an ankle injury.
| Category | Spurs | Timberwolves |
|---|---|---|
| Series Lead | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Regular Season Record | 62-20 | 49-33 |
| Game 3 Result | Won 115-108 | Lost 108-115 |
| Point Spread | -4.5 | +4.5 |
| Total Points Line | 218.5 | 218.5 |
Key betting trends for Game 4:
- Spurs are 9-1 in their last 10 road games.
- Minnesota won 6 of the last 10 head-to-head meetings.
- Computer models project scores around 111-106 or 112-106 for San Antonio.
- Naz Reid scored 18 bench points in Game 3.
The best value currently leans toward San Antonio covering the spread. The Spurs have controlled pace, defended efficiently, and executed better late-game offense throughout this series.
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